Turkey’s Strategic Position in NATO Under Reassessment
Foreign policy analysts are reassessing Turkey’s position within the NATO alliance in the light of shifting regional security balances. Developments in the Black Sea, energy and border issues in the Eastern Mediterranean and instability in the Middle East are said to have made the country’s role within the alliance more pronounced.
Geography as the constant variable
The most enduring element defining Turkey’s position within the alliance is its geography. The straits controlling passage between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean are governed under the Montreux Convention, which sets the rules for the transit of warships. Being on NATO’s southern flank makes the country a direct interlocutor for security matters arising from both the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East.
Force structure
Turkey has one of the largest force structures within NATO in terms of personnel. While size alone is not a sufficient measure, it constitutes a decisive item in terms of the manpower and deployment capacity the alliance needs in times of crisis. The bases the country hosts and its early warning infrastructure also contribute to the alliance’s regional situational awareness.
The balance between the eastern and southern flanks
NATO’s strategic priorities in recent years have foregrounded the eastern flank; force deployments and exercise planning have largely been shaped along that axis. On the southern flank, threats of a different nature exist: irregular migration, maritime security, protection of energy infrastructure and regional instability. The capability sets the two flanks require diverge: heavy forces and air defence come to the fore in the east, while surveillance, maritime patrol and unmanned systems carry more weight in the south.
The diplomatic function of defence industry
Experts note that Turkey’s growing domestic defence industry has become an element increasing its bargaining power in relations with allies. Defence exports including services reaching 10.5 billion dollars in 2025 and new contracts reaching 17.8 billion dollars show the scale of that capacity. At a time when munitions production capacity is limited, the weight of countries able to produce within the alliance rises.
Points of friction
Assessing a position within the alliance solely through contribution gives an incomplete picture. Disagreements over air defence system procurement, participation in combat aircraft programmes and bilateral tensions with some allies remain on the agenda of relations. Such issues also directly affect the scope of defence industry cooperation.
Assessment
Defence industry cooperation stands out as a strategic instrument beyond conventional military cooperation. Joint production and mutual procurement models make the tie between countries durable for the duration of the contract. Whether such ties will serve a protective function during periods of political tension is nonetheless an assumption not yet tested.
